Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

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Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by GD on Wed 21 Mar 2012, 5:16 pm

Submarine - Pre-Election Poll
Date of release: 21st March 2012
the results for the first pre-election poll. Makes for an interesting read and all to play for for some of the new candidates. The final poll will go out on or about the 10th April.


This pre-election poll was conducted to the 2127 database of Submarine’s business contacts. 310 responded over a 5 day period. The respondents are generally office workers in the mid- to upper earning bracket; likely to be commuters working in 9-5 jobs in St Peter Port. – the ABC1 socio-economic group. This poll is unlikely to reach the C2Des
Socio-Economic Reference:
A- Higher managerial, administrative, professional e.g. Chief executive, senior civil servant, surgeon
B - Intermediate managerial, administrative, professional e.g. bank manager, teacher
C1- Supervisory, clerical, junior managerial e.g. shop floor supervisor, bank clerk, sales person
C2 - Skilled manual workers e.g. electrician, carpenter
D- Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers e.g. assembly line worker, refuse collector, messenger
E - Casual labourers, pensioners, unemployed e.g. pensioner without private pensions and anyone living on basic benefits
Methodology
The broadcast was sent to the database inviting subscribers to ‘vote’ for their preferred candidate(s) in their district, but were given the option to vote across all districts.
Swing
There were clear winners in some of the districts. Towards the 6th and 7th seats it would be difficult for us to be emphatic with the results; just not enough data for us. We gave a 5% swing as a best-guess for the bottom seats.
Next poll
On the 8th of April we will run the same poll to gauge if there have been any changes once the hustings have started and the manifestos have been delivered.

St Peter Port, South - 6 available seats
Candidate Name % of respondents who gave the candidate one vote Position
HARWOOD; Peter Andrew 80.77% 1
LANGLOIS; Allister Hurrell 51.92% 2
KUTTELWASCHER; Jan 38.46% 3
LORD; Richard Lund 32.69% 4,5 or 6
TASKER; Jennifer Mary 30.77% 4,5 or 6
BREHAUT: Barry Leslie 28.85% 4,5 or 6
DOMAILLE; Roger 28.85% 4,5 or 6
BYGOTT-WEBB; Hugh B. J. 11.54% Unsuccessful
JONES; Robert Anthony 9.62% Unsuccessful
FORMAN, Neil Edward 1.92% Unsuccessful

St Peter Port, North - 7 available seats
Candidate Name % of respondents who gave the candidate one vote Position
GOLLOP; John Alfred Bannerman 48.08% 1
MATTHEWS, Robert Rhoderick 40.38% 2
CONDER; Richard 36.54% 3
SHERBOURNE; Peter Anthony 34.62% 4
STOREY; Martin John 34.62% 5
LE CLERC, Michelle Karen 26.92% 6
COLLINS; Michael Wynne 21.15% 7
GALLIENNE; Leon Roy 17.31% 7
BEBB; Elis Gwyn 13.46% Unsuccessful
IRVIN; Joseph Edward 13.46% Unsuccessful
FISHER, Keith Alan 11.54% Unsuccessful
QUERIPEL; Lester Carlson 9.62% Unsuccessful
ROBERT; Matthew Rex 7.69% Unsuccessful
RENIER; James Alan Mitchell 1.92% Unsuccessful

St Sampson - 6 available seats
Candidate Name % of respondents who gave the candidate one vote Position
ST. PIER; Gavin Anthony 53.03% 1
OGIER, Scott John 42.42% 2
TROTT; Lyndon Sean 42.42% 3
STEWART; Kevin Andrew 40.91% 4
GILLSON; Peter Leonard 36.36% 5
STEPHENS; Tania Jane 36.36% 6
BRETON; Sarah Jane 25.76% Unsuccessful
LE PELLEY; Paul Raymond 19.70% Unsuccessful
RIHOY; Ivan Frederick 16.67% Unsuccessful
BOWKER; Caroline Jane 12.12% Unsuccessful
BROOM E; Robert John 9.09% Unsuccessful

The Vale - 7 available seats
Candidate Name % of respondents who gave the candidate one vote Position
FALLAIZE; Matthew James 73.44% 1
JONES; David Brian 57.81% 2
LE LIEVRE; Andrew Robert 54.69% 3
SPRUCE; Anthony 39.06% 4
LOWE; Mary May 32.81% 5
QUERIPEL; Laurie Bryn 29.69% 6
COLLINS; Garry Michael 25.00% 7
SYMONS; James Richard 23.44% 7
WEBBER; Anthony 0% Unsuccessful

The Castel - 7 available seats
Candidate Name % of respondents who gave the candidate one vote Position
LE TOCQ; Jonathan Paul 47.17% 1
DOREY; Mark Hirzel 45.28% 2
GREEN; Christopher James 33.96% 3
PAINT; Barry John Edward 33.96% 4
ADAM; Alexander Hunter 32.08% 5
McMANUS; Sean Joseph 32.08% 6
JAMES, MBE; Sandra Anne 28.30% 7
DUQUEMIN; Darren James 24.53% 7
FLOUQUET; Bernard Marcel 22.64% 7
GARRETT; Michael Guy Gordon 11.32% Unsuccessful
MAYER; Dominic Peter 9.43% Unsuccessful
MACINTYRE; Martin Brian 7.55% Unsuccessful
MARTIN; Rolf 1.89% Unsuccessful

The West - 6 available seats
Candidate Name % of respondents who gave the candidate one vote Position
PERROT; Roger Allen 72.73% 1
INGLIS; David Albert 40.91% 2
BROUARD; Alvord Henry 31.82% 3
LANGLOIS; Shane Lenfestey 31.82% 4
DE LISLE; David de Garis 30.30% 5
DUDLEY-OWEN; Gloria Pearl 27.27% 6
BURFORD; Yvonne 24.24% 6
WILKIE; Arrun Michael 22.73% 6
GARLICK; Paul Michael 21.21% 6
GORVEL; David John 18.18% Unsuccessful

The South East - 6 available seats
Candidate Name % of respondents who gave the candidate one vote Position
SILLARS, Robert William 62.07% 1
LUXON; Paul Anthony 56.90% 2
QUIN; Francis William 48.28% 3
O'HARA; Michael George 44.83% 4
SOULSBY; Heidi Jean Renée 39.66% 5
HADLEY; Michael Peter James 20.69% 6
MAHE; Martyn 17.24% 6
TALBOT-CULL; Margaret 15.52% 6
LE SAUVAGE; Janine Michelle 6.90% Unsuccessful
ELDRIDGE; Arthur Walter 5.17% Unsuccessful
MATTHEWS; Aidan Douglas Stephen 5.17% Unsuccessful

Kind Regards

Neil Inder
Director
www.submarine.gg


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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by Pegasus on Thu 22 Mar 2012, 6:44 pm

Interesting results wonder what the candidates think of this? bet Anthony Webber is well upset
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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by letocq on Thu 22 Mar 2012, 7:03 pm

Well I'm certainly not upset, but neither am I counting my chickens just yet!

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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by Dell on Fri 23 Mar 2012, 7:31 am

Some of the clear winners are obvious, but the interesting ones are the mid-level who will either make the cut or just miss out, including some current Deputies! Very interesting....





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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by Thistle on Fri 23 Mar 2012, 8:01 am

will only be voting for three in the west and they are all newcomers..looking at this poll it seems we are getting much the same group of politiians that people have been calling the worst ever states..
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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by Sandra James on Wed 28 Mar 2012, 12:32 pm

Interesting - will await the next poll after manifesto's and hustings are well underway!

Women not fairing too well - maybe the voter profile has an impact on the outcomes.

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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by Yvonne Burford on Sun 01 Apr 2012, 6:24 pm

To put the poll in context (and as they admit), there was a small sample size, a very low response rate, it was emailed to an unrepresentative section of society (ABC1) and was self-selecting within that. Some of those (me included!) who are shown as just possibly getting in may have had as few as 7 or 8 votes!

These are probably akin to the results that would occur if the States was chosen by the business community and, as much as some people may wish that to be the case, fortunately it isn't!

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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by Diddycoon on Sun 01 Apr 2012, 8:00 pm

interesting reading


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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

Post by Rolf Martin on Sun 01 Apr 2012, 8:32 pm

I'm not dead yet, so I don't need to be buried

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Re: Submarine Guernsey Pre-Election Poll Results Interims

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